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Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants

Received: 12 December 2016     Accepted: 27 December 2016     Published: 20 February 2017
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Abstract

Many high development countries have not the natural hydrocarbon deposits. That is why NPP energy production is constantly and intensive increases. For example, in France. The corresponding treats under NPP exploitation also are increasing, that caused by different natural and manmade factors, including as attractive objects for possible directed terrorist attacks. Correct assessments of corresponding risks and damages are necessary for any NPP at all periods: its projecting, building and exploitation under its complex integrated emergency management. Here we try to analyze some possible methods of NPP risk assessments. Early we predicted the irradiation doses and corresponded risks for population under implementation of Russian Federal Program:” Development of Russian atomic energy industrial complex on 2007-2020 years at 10 homeland NPP, that operated in normal non disasters regimes during two last decades. But such data are absent for NPP, that have been or will be under non prognostic emergencies. It is connected with the following facts. The part or total of needed information may be obtained only after NPP disasters. Some NPP are located in the dangerous regions and exposed to intense negative natural responses (earthquakes, tsunami, etc.) and manmade ones, when NPP are located in some dangerous conflicts zones with high level of possible terrorism threats. Here the using of classic methods of expertise risk NPP assessments are not correct and often impossible at all. Some needed thematic data may be obtained from primary virtual computer tests of individual NPP with imitation of possible disasters. It allows to plan the actions for NPP operators and special services under serious NPP disasters or may be to prevent them at all. These thematic problems, connected with the following NPP: Fukusima, Seversk in Tomsk region, Armenian, the future NPP in Kazakhstan and nuclear terrorism are also under consideration in this article.

Published in Nuclear Science (Volume 2, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14
Page(s) 16-25
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

NPP, Exploitation, Disaster, Risk, Damage, Irradiation Dose

References
[1] Valyaev A. N., Aleksanyan G. A., et. all. Managing risks to water resources in mountain regions from natural and man-made disasters” in Proceeding of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Stimulus for Human and Societal Dynamics in the Prevention of Catastrophes: NATO Science for Pearce and Security Series. E: Human and Societal Dynamics”–vol. 80, pp. 172-188, 2011. IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by Arman Avagyan, David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer.
[2] Valyaev A. N., Aleksanyan G. A., et. all. «RISKS TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND THEIR POSSIBLE MANAGEMENT.” NATO Science for Pearce and Security Series. E: Human and Societal Dynamics”–IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer and Dmytro V. Rudakov vol.94, pp. 191-206, 2011.
[3] Minasyan R. S., Aleksanyan G. A., Valyaev A. N., et. all. “Large Artificial Water Reservoirs and Dams as Critical Risk Objects in Armenia” in Proceeding of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Stimulus for Human and Societal Dynamics in the Prevention of Catastrophes: NATO Science for Pearce and Security Series. E: Human and Societal Dynamics”–vol. 80, 2011. pp. 131-138IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by Arman Avagyan, David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer.
[4] G. M. Aleksanyan, A. N. Valyaev, K I. Pyuskyulyan. “Several approaches to the solution of water contamination problems in transboundary rivers, crossing the territory of Armenia” in NATO Science Series: Proc. of NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Nuclear Risk in Central Asia”, Kazakhstan, Almaty, June 20-22, 2006. Editors: B. Salbu and L. Skipperud, Published House: Springer Science +Business Media B. V. 2008, Netherlands, pp. 201-211.
[5] A. N. Valyaev, G. M. Aleksanyan, et. all. “Prediction, Prevention and Management of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes at Mountain Risk Water Objects (MWO)” in Materials Of International Conference “MOUNTAINHAZARDS 2013”Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Water in Mountain Areas”. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 16-18 September, 2013.
[6] VALYAEV A. N., KRYLOV A. L., SEMENOV V. N., G. M. ALEKSANYAN, A. A. VALYAEV “Irradiation doses at nuclear power plants at normal and emergency situations.” in Proceeding of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Correlation Between Human Factors and the Prevention of Disasters”: IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by Arman Avagyan, David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer. pp. 40-57. 2012.
[7] Valyaev A. N., Krylov A. L., Semenov V. N., Nikolisky D. V Prediction of irradiation doses for population under implementation of Russian Federal Program:” Development of Russian atomic energy industrial complex on 2007-2020 years”. ” in Proceeding of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Stimulus for Human and Societal Dynamics in the Prevention of Catastrophes: NATO Science for Pearce and Security Series. E: Human and Societal Dynamics”–vol. 80, pp. 172-188, 2011. IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by Arman Avagyan, David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer.
[8] A. N. Valyaev, S. V. Kazakov, A. A. H. D. Passell et. al. “Assessments of Risks and Possible Ecological and Economic Damages from Large-Scale Natural and Man-Induced Catastrophes in Ecology-Hazard Regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus.” in NATO Science for Peace and Security Series -C: Environmental Security, Proc. of NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Prevention, Detection and Response to Nuclear and Radiological Threat”, May 2-7, 2007 Yerevan, Armenia, Editors: S. Apikyan et. al. Published House: Springer, Netherlands, 2008, pp. 281-299.
[9] A. N. Valyaev, S. V. Kazakov, A. A. H. D. Passell et. al. “Assessments of Risks and Possible Ecological and Economic Damages from Large-Scale Natural and Man-Induced Catastrophes in Ecology-Hazard Regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus.” in NATO Science for Peace and Security Series -C: Environmental Security, Proc. of NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Nuclear Risk in Central Asia”, Kazakhstan, Almaty, June 20-22, 2006. Editors: B. Salbu and L. Skipperud, Published House: Springer Science +Business Media B. V. 2008, Netherlands, pp. 133-149.
[10] A. N. Valyaev, S. V. Kazakov, A. A. H. D. Passell et. al. “Assessments of Radiological Risks and Possible Ecological and Economic Damages from Large-Scale Natural and Man-Induced Catastrophes in Ecology-Hazard Regions of Central Asia and the Caucasus.” In Proc of ISTC Workshop: “DISTANT TRANSFER of RADIONUCLIDES in MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS”, Tbilisi, Georgia, 6-10 November, 2006, pp. 155-164.
[11] VALYAEV A. N., PASSELL H. D., SOLODUKHIN V. P., ALEKSANYAN G. M., et. all, Geo- chemical and Radiological Risks in dangerous regions of Central Asia and Caucasus, in Proceeding of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop: “Stimulus for Human and Societal Dynamics in the Prevention of Catastrophes: NATO Science for Pearce and Security Series. E: Human and Societal Dynamics”–vol. 80, pp. 194-203. IOS Press–Amsterdam–Berlin–Tokyo–Washington, D. C., Edited by Arman Avagyan, David L. Barry, Wilhelm G. Goldewey, Dieter W. G. Reimer.
[12] A. N. Valyaev, G. M Aleksanyan, et. all - Integrated Emergency Management and Risks for Mass Casualty Emergencies. Proceedings of the 7th Chaotic Modeling and Simulation International Conference Lisbon, Portugal, 7 - 10 June 2014. pp. 507-522.
[13] “Proceeding of IBRAE RAS (Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences), issue 13: Accident at ”Fukushima -1 NPP: Response Experience and Lessons. Moscow: Nauka 2013, 246 p. ISBN 978-5-02-038468 (bound) (in Russian).
[14] Kazakov S. V., Utkin S. S., Linge I. I., Valyaev A. N. “Categorization of Aqueous Media and Water Bodies by Contamination Radioactive Levels.” in Proc. of International Conference “Radioactivity after Nuclear Explosions and Accidents”, v. 3, pp. 402-407, (in Russian) December 5-6, Moscow, Publ. House: St. Peterburg, GIDROMETIZDAT, 2006.
[15] Valyaev A. N. and Yanushkevich. “Using of Acoustic Techniques for Detection of Explosives in Gas, Liquid and Solid Mediums” NATO Science Series II “Detection of Bulk Explosives: Advanced Techniques against Terrorism” (Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry), vol. 138, pp. 175–183, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands. Proc. of NATO Advanced Research Workshop, June 16-21, 2003 St. Petersburg, Russia.
[16] Valyaev A. N., Kazakov S. V., Aitmatov I. T., Aitmatova D. T. “Problems of Ecologic Safety under Displacement of Rock Stones, controlled from Space, at Ecological Dangerous Regions of Tien-Shyan Mountains” in Proc. the First Intern. Conference ”Earth from Space- the Most effective Solutions” (in Russian), 2003 http://www.transparentworld.ru/conference/presentations/operative.htm tyan_shyan_prsnt.zip.
[17] Valyaev A. N., Kazakov S. V. et. al. “Earth from Space–Some Actual Problems and Their Possible Decisions with Using of Space Monitoring ” in Proc. the First Intern. Conference ”Earth from Space- the Most effective Solutions” (in Russian), 2003 http://www.transparentworld.ru/conference/presentations/operative.htm valyaev_doclad.zip.
[18] Valyaev A. N., Kazakov S. V. Stepanets O. V. et. al. “Using of Space Technologies for Monitoring of Large River’s Basins and Prediction of Large-Scale Natural and Man- Induced Catastrophes in Ecology-Hazard Regions of Central Asia and Caucasus” in Proc. the Second Intern. Conference ”Earth from Space- the Most Effective Solutions” Section “Space Monitoring in Problems of Management of Territories”; Moscow, 2005 http://www.transparentworld.ru/conference.
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  • APA Style

    Alexander Valyaev, Gurgen Aleksanyan, Alexey Valyaev, Oleg Arkhipkin. (2017). Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants. Nuclear Science, 2(1), 16-25. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14

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    ACS Style

    Alexander Valyaev; Gurgen Aleksanyan; Alexey Valyaev; Oleg Arkhipkin. Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants. Nucl. Sci. 2017, 2(1), 16-25. doi: 10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14

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    AMA Style

    Alexander Valyaev, Gurgen Aleksanyan, Alexey Valyaev, Oleg Arkhipkin. Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants. Nucl Sci. 2017;2(1):16-25. doi: 10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14,
      author = {Alexander Valyaev and Gurgen Aleksanyan and Alexey Valyaev and Oleg Arkhipkin},
      title = {Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants},
      journal = {Nuclear Science},
      volume = {2},
      number = {1},
      pages = {16-25},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ns.20170201.14},
      abstract = {Many high development countries have not the natural hydrocarbon deposits. That is why NPP energy production is constantly and intensive increases. For example, in France. The corresponding treats under NPP exploitation also are increasing, that caused by different natural and manmade factors, including as attractive objects for possible directed terrorist attacks. Correct assessments of corresponding risks and damages are necessary for any NPP at all periods: its projecting, building and exploitation under its complex integrated emergency management. Here we try to analyze some possible methods of NPP risk assessments. Early we predicted the irradiation doses and corresponded risks for population under implementation of Russian Federal Program:” Development of Russian atomic energy industrial complex on 2007-2020 years at 10 homeland NPP, that operated in normal non disasters regimes during two last decades. But such data are absent for NPP, that have been or will be under non prognostic emergencies. It is connected with the following facts. The part or total of needed information may be obtained only after NPP disasters. Some NPP are located in the dangerous regions and exposed to intense negative natural responses (earthquakes, tsunami, etc.) and manmade ones, when NPP are located in some dangerous conflicts zones with high level of possible terrorism threats. Here the using of classic methods of expertise risk NPP assessments are not correct and often impossible at all. Some needed thematic data may be obtained from primary virtual computer tests of individual NPP with imitation of possible disasters. It allows to plan the actions for NPP operators and special services under serious NPP disasters or may be to prevent them at all. These thematic problems, connected with the following NPP: Fukusima, Seversk in Tomsk region, Armenian, the future NPP in Kazakhstan and nuclear terrorism are also under consideration in this article.},
     year = {2017}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants
    AU  - Alexander Valyaev
    AU  - Gurgen Aleksanyan
    AU  - Alexey Valyaev
    AU  - Oleg Arkhipkin
    Y1  - 2017/02/20
    PY  - 2017
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14
    T2  - Nuclear Science
    JF  - Nuclear Science
    JO  - Nuclear Science
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    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2640-4346
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ns.20170201.14
    AB  - Many high development countries have not the natural hydrocarbon deposits. That is why NPP energy production is constantly and intensive increases. For example, in France. The corresponding treats under NPP exploitation also are increasing, that caused by different natural and manmade factors, including as attractive objects for possible directed terrorist attacks. Correct assessments of corresponding risks and damages are necessary for any NPP at all periods: its projecting, building and exploitation under its complex integrated emergency management. Here we try to analyze some possible methods of NPP risk assessments. Early we predicted the irradiation doses and corresponded risks for population under implementation of Russian Federal Program:” Development of Russian atomic energy industrial complex on 2007-2020 years at 10 homeland NPP, that operated in normal non disasters regimes during two last decades. But such data are absent for NPP, that have been or will be under non prognostic emergencies. It is connected with the following facts. The part or total of needed information may be obtained only after NPP disasters. Some NPP are located in the dangerous regions and exposed to intense negative natural responses (earthquakes, tsunami, etc.) and manmade ones, when NPP are located in some dangerous conflicts zones with high level of possible terrorism threats. Here the using of classic methods of expertise risk NPP assessments are not correct and often impossible at all. Some needed thematic data may be obtained from primary virtual computer tests of individual NPP with imitation of possible disasters. It allows to plan the actions for NPP operators and special services under serious NPP disasters or may be to prevent them at all. These thematic problems, connected with the following NPP: Fukusima, Seversk in Tomsk region, Armenian, the future NPP in Kazakhstan and nuclear terrorism are also under consideration in this article.
    VL  - 2
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Division of Ecological Safety and Radiation Risk, Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

  • Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Yerevan State University, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia

  • Commercial Development and Industry Partnerships, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

  • Chief Specialist, ?Spetslabpribor А? LLP, Almaty, Kazakhstan

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